SUPPLY CHAIN OPTIMIZATION JOURNAL
   

 

Monday, November 23, 2009

Logitech Case Study

Logitech is a world leader in personal peripherals, driving innovation in PC navigation, Internet communications, digital music, home-entertainment control, gaming and wireless devices. With a history of fast-growing distribution channels and a product line that is frequently being updated, Logitech's key supply chain challenges are similar to those of many other consumer electronics heavyweights. Its product life cycles are relatively short and consumer demand can be fickle. But when Logitech gained global, mass market status with customers ranging from Walmart and Best Buy to direct online sales, its supply chain challenges were compounded.

With mounting distribution challenges, Logitech engaged Profit Point to bridge the gap between their ERP and their real world need to compete. Click the link below to access the case study:

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Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Cost-to-Serve and Allocation

Despite our egalitarian mindset in the U.S., when it comes to customers, let’s face it: They have never been ‘created equal.’ Certainly for decades, manufacturers and distributors have offered better pricing to some customers than others. We’re all familiar with quantity break pricing, column pricing with different discount levels for different categories of customers, and contract pricing. And who doesn’t visit the local supermarket today and notice the ‘buy 3 get 1 free’ offers to encourage us to increase our purchases?

Volume is valuable and warrants better pricing, we are in the habit of believing. And most often this is true. Not only does a high-volume customer drive our buying power with suppliers by helping us reach the next price break level on the purchasing side, but it can make each sale more profitable: The cost of servicing 10 orders that result in a sale of 100 units can be 10 times as great as the cost of servicing a single order for those 100 units.

This bias towards volume underlies traditional customer ranking methods. But many manufacturers today are taking a closer look at these policies and finding them lacking. Instead, they are engaging in a detailed cost analysis effort called ‘cost-to-serve.’ While cost-to-serve can be a very broad subject covering product costs, location costs, transportation costs and service costs, to name a few, this article will take a look primarily at customer costs.

It’s not that heretofore companies have ignored factors that shade the degree of profitability of a large client. Many firms, presented with the opportunity of doing business with, say, Wal-Mart or the federal government, may question whether it’s really worth doing. They’re thinking about the overhead of handling such a client and the cost of meeting client demands – with slim price margins.

What’s different today is that companies are trying to measure these costs precisely and to make informed, scientific decisions based upon them. Whether they engage consulting firms who have developed methods for tackling this measurement, purchase software to help them out, or devise their own internal approach, more and more manufacturers and wholesalers are gathering detailed costs and trying to apply them to decisions about their customers.

Consumer goods companies, for instance, are recording metrics such as the true cost of customer service. How much support time does this customer require of the customer service organization? How much sales time to we devote to him? Does the customer frequently return merchandise, and if so, what is the cost of processing that return? In the case of consumer goods manufacturers, we might also look at custom-branded merchandise: What is the true cost of providing private labeling for a retailer? Are we really capturing in the product cost all of the special handling required by the purchasing and distribution organizations? All of these costs are very important is assessing a customer’s true profitability.

On the other side of the equation, there may be some sales and marketing benefits that a customer brings, and these, too, should be weighed. Does the name ‘Wal-Mart’ on our client list provide positive benefit to the organization? Is another client who doesn’t seem to purchase very much an outstanding reference for us who sends other potential customers to us? If a business can establish a process and gain agreement across the organization on measuring true costs and benefits, it can define policies to more precisely control bottom-line revenue.
Certainly, one of the first decisions that can be made, once true costs are measured and accepted by an organization, is to eliminate customers who are really unprofitable. But cost-to-serve can also come into play in other ways. We may want to devise strategic programs that nurture our best clients to safeguard their business. We may hold special events for them or assign dedicated reps, for instance.

One of the situations where cost-to-serve becomes a critical tool is in inventory allocation, particularly in an inventory shortage situation. When there is insufficient inventory to meet demand, most manufacturers will want to serve the most valuable customers first.

This frequently comes into play in segments of the technology industry, such as computer peripherals, typically with the launch of a popular new consumer product. An extreme example of this might be the launch of a new Wii game player at the start of the holiday season. Armed with true cost-to-serve data, manufacturers could make allocation decisions scientifically to spread the available inventory across the order pool while maximizing profit.

You might ask whether this process can be automated today. The answer is ‘partially.’ Allocation can certainly be automated, but collecting cost-to-serve data on customers usually involves some manual steps, because most companies don’t have all the systems in place to collect this data automatically (and even with sophisticated systems, the data may not be collected in exactly the way you wish.) Some spreadsheet work may be required. Once the spreadsheet is in place, however, the process becomes straightforward.

Perhaps you want to rank customers sequentially from top to bottom, or group them into ‘profit’ segments. Once that is done, an algorithm can be designed to optimize the allocation of inventory according to the rules tied to those rankings or segments. The allocation algorithm might be designed to work directly from the spreadsheet, as well, automating even more of the process. In any case, executing the service decisions in accord with true costs ensures we are protecting our most valuable customers.

The application of cost-to-serve to inventory allocation takes on an even more interesting aspect for consumer goods manufacturers who ship to retailers. As those of us familiar with this industry are aware, most large retailers have very specific guidelines defining how suppliers must do business with them. The retailers specify how an order must arrive – shipped complete, packed by store, etc.; when it must arrive – ‘arrive by’ date; and a variety of paperwork details including design, content and placement of shipping labels and bills of lading. Associated with each of these requirements is a dollar penalty the supplier will incur, taken as a deduction from the supplier’s invoice, for violation of the guideline.

For a consumer goods manufacturer, these penalties or ‘chargebacks,’ can mean the difference between a profitable client and an unprofitable one. In this situation, the ability to allocate inventory defensively, to minimize chargebacks (or at least make an informed scientific decision to incur them) is critical. A powerful allocation engine, in an inventory shortage situation, can maximize profit by factoring potential chargeback costs for late or partial shipment into the equation. In this case, the allocation engine ensures that the cost to serve the retailer is as low as possible.

In addition to retailer penalties, another aspect of ‘allocation-according-to-true-cost’ involves inventory fulfillment location choices. If a company operates a single distribution center in Los Angeles and imports all its product from Asia, there may be only a single fulfillment option. But for the wide majority of consumer goods manufacturers who import from Asia, service clients nationwide, and operate either multiple distribution centers or a distribution center located in, for instance, the Midwest, there are several options and a variety of questions arise.

If inventory is constrained at the facility that would normally handle a particular customer’s order, should the order be fulfilled from an alternate facility? To make this decision, we need to factor in not only the additional shipping cost but also to weigh that cost against the value of the customer. There may be low profit customers, viewed from the perspective of cost-to-serve, for whom we do not want to make this investment. In the case of a retailer where a potential penalty is involved, the decision might be made dynamically based on a comparison of the chargeback incurred against the additional cost of shipping. If the chargeback fee would be higher than the additional shipping cost, it may be worthwhile to use the alternate distribution center.

This type of on-the-fly fulfillment decision is often called ‘dynamic allocation.’ Another example of dynamic allocation involves intercepting shipments in transit to, say, our hypothetical Midwest distribution center. Least cost fulfillment might dictate fulfilling west coast orders by pulling off inventory required to fulfill them at a deconsolidation facility near the port – before a shipment heads out to the distribution center in the Midwest. Under what conditions is this the least-cost choice? An inventory allocation algorithm based on cost-to-serve can make this decision mathematically, using rules the manufacturer defines.

It’s important to emphasize that the decisions on exactly how to apply cost-to-serve data to inventory allocation will depend on the philosophy of the individual company. For this reason, such allocation solutions are often unique and are adjuncts to the standard capabilities of order management systems. Leading-edge firms who are structuring allocation based on true costs typically do so via point solutions that supplement their central transactional systems.

Profit Point, as the name suggest, provides these point solutions and integrates them into SAP, Oracle, and other order management systems to help clients make the best, most profitable allocation and customer decisions. Our expertise in this area can help clients drive maximal profit to the bottom line.

This article was written by Cindy Engers, a Senior Account Manager at Profit Point.

To learn more about our supply chain data integration and business optimization services, contact us here or call (866) 347-1130.

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Friday, June 05, 2009

Understanding Your Risks with Monte Carlos

What is a Monte Carlo model and what good is it? We’re not talking a type of car produced by General Motors under the Chevy nameplate. “Monte Carlo” is the name of a type of mathematical computer model. A Monte Carlo is merely a tool for figuring out how risky some particular situation is. It is a method to answer a question like: “what are the odds that such-and-such event will happen”. Now a good statistician can calculate an answer to this kind of question when the circumstances are simple or if the system that you’re dealing with doesn’t have a lot of forces that work together to give the final result. But when you’re faced with a complicated situation that has several processes that interact with each other, and where luck or chance determines the outcome of each, then calculating the odds for how the whole system behaves can be a very difficult task.

Let’s just get some jargon out of the way. To be a little more technical, any process which has a range of possible outcomes and where luck is what ultimately determines the actual result is called “stochastic”, “random” or “probabilistic”. Flipping a coin or rolling dice are simple examples. And a “stochastic system” would be two or more of these probabilistic events that interact.

Imagine that the system you’re interested in is a chemical or pharmaceutical plant where to produce one batch of material requires a mixing and a drying step. Suppose there are 3 mixers and 5 dryers that function completely independent of one another; the department uses a ‘pool concept’ where any batch can use any available mixer and any available dryer. However, since there is not enough room in the area, if a batch completes mixing but there is no dryer available, then the material must sit in the mixer and wait. Thus the mixer can’t be used for any other production. Finally, there are 20 different materials that are produced in this department, and each of them can have a different average mixing and drying time.

Now assume that the graph of the process times for each of the 8 machines looks somewhat like what’s called a ‘bell-shaped curve’. This graph, with it’s highest point (at the average) right in the middle and the left and right sides are mirror images of each other, is known as a Normal Distribution. But because of the nature of the technology and the machines having different ages, the “bells” aren’t really centered; their average values are pulled to the left or right so the bell is actually a little skewed to one side or the other. (Therefore, these process times are really not Normally distributed.)

If you’re trying to analyze this department, the fact that the equipment is treated as a pooled resource means it’s not a straightforward calculation to determine the average length of time required to mix and dry one batch of a certain product. And complicating the effort would be the fact that the answer depends on how many other batches are then in the department and what products they are. If you’re trying to modify the configuration of the department, maybe make changes to the scheduling policies or procedures, or add/change the material handling equipment that moves supplies to and from this department, a Monte Carlo model would be the best approach to performing the analysis.

In a Monte Carlo simulation of this manufacturing operation, the model would have a clock and a ‘to-do’ list of the next events that would occur as batches are processed through the unit. The first events to go onto this list would be requests to start a batch, i.e. the paperwork that directs or initiates production. The order and timing for the appearance of these batches at the department’s front-door could either be random or might be a pre-defined production schedule that is an input to the model.

The model “knows” the rules of how material is processed from a command to produce through the various steps in manufacturing and it keeps track of the status (empty and available, busy mixing/drying, possibly blocked from emptying a finished batch, etc.) of all the equipment. And the program also follows the progress and location of each batch. The model has a simulated clock, which keeps moving ahead and as it does, batches move through the equipment according to the policies and logic that it’s been given. Each batch moves from the initial request stage to being mixed, dried and then out the back-door. At any given point in simulated time, if there is no equipment available for the next step, then the batch waits (and if it has just completed mixing it might prevent another batch from being started).

What sets a Monte Carlo model apart however is that when the program needs to make a decision or perform an action where the outcome is a matter of chance, it has the ability to essentially roll a pair of dice (or flip a coin, or “choose straws”) in order to determine the specific outcome. In fact, since rolling dice means that each number has an equal chance of “coming up”, a Monte Carlo model actually contains equations known as “probability distributions”, which will pick a result where certain outcomes have more or less likelihood of occurrence. It’s through the use of these distributions, that we can accurately reflect those skewed non-Normal process times of the equipment in the manufacturing department.

The really cool thing about these distributions is that if the Monte Carlo uses the same distribution repeatedly, it might get a different result each time simply due to the random nature of the process. Suppose that the graph below represents the range of values for the process time of material XYZ (one of the 20 products) in one of the mixers. Notice how the middle of the ‘bell’ is off-center to the right (it’s skewed to the right).


So if the model makes several repeated calls to the probability distribution equation for this graph, sometimes the result will be the 2.0-2.5 hrs, other times 3.5-4.0 hrs, and on some occasions >4hrs. But in the long run, over many repetitions of this distribution, the proportion of times for each of the time bands will be the values that are in the graph (5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, etc.) and were used to define the equation.

So to come back to the manufacturing simulation, as the model moves batches through production, when it needs to determine how much time will be required for a particular mixer or dryer, it runs the appropriate probability equation and gets back a certain process time. In the computer’s memory, the batch will continue to occupy the machine (and the machine’s status will be busy) until the simulation clock gets to the correct time when the process duration has completed. Then the model will check the next step required for the batch and it will move it to the proper equipment (if there is one available) or out of the department all together.

In this way then, the model would continue to process batches until it either ran out of batches in the production schedule that was an input, or until the simulation clock reached some pre-set stopping point. During the course of one run, the computer would have been monitoring the process and recording in memory whatever statistics were relevant to the goal of the analysis. For example, the model might have kept track of the amount of time that certain equipment was blocked from emptying XYZ to the next step. Or if the aim of the project was to calculate the average length of time to produce a batch, the model would have been following the overall duration of each batch from start to finish in the simulated department.

The results from just one run of the Monte Carlo model however are not sufficient to be used as a basis for any decisions. The reason for this is the fact that this is a stochastic system where chance determines the outcome. We can’t really rely on just one set of results, because just through the “luck of the draw” the process times that were picked by those probability distribution equations might have been generally on the high or low side. So the model is run repeatedly some pre-set number of repetitions, say 100 or 500, and results of each of these is saved.

Once all of the Monte Carlo simulations have been accumulated, it’s possible to make certain conclusions. For example, it might turn out that the overall process time through the department was 10 hrs or more on 8% of the times. Or the average length of blocked time, when batches are prevented from moving to the next stage because there was no available equipment, was 12 hrs; or that the amount of blocked time was 15hrs or more on 15% of the simulations.

With information like this, a decision maker would be able to weigh the advantages of adding/changing specific items of equipment as well as modifications to the department’s policies, procedures, or even computer systems. In a larger more complicated system, a Monte Carlo model such as the one outlined here, could help to decrease the overall plant throughput time significantly. At some pharmaceutical plants for instance, where raw materials can be extremely high valued, decreasing the overall throughput time by 30% to 40% would represent a large and very real savings in the value of the work in process inventory.

Hopefully, this discussion has helped to clarify just what a Monte Carlo model is, and how it is built. This kind of model accounts for the fundamental variability that is present is almost all decision making. It does not eliminate risk or prevent a worst-case scenario from actually occurring. Nor does it guarantee a best-case outcome either. But it does give the business manager added insight into what can go wrong or right and the best ways to handle the inherent variability of a process.

This article was written by John Hughes, Profit Point's Production Scheduling Practice Leader.

To learn more about our supply chain optimization services, contact us here.

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Friday, March 06, 2009

Rohm and Haas Picks Profit Point to Improve Production Scheduling

Profit Point's data integration and scheduling optimization services deliver reliable results with reduced operations costs.


North Brookfield, MA

Profit Point today announced that its Profit Data InterfaceTM software has been selected by Rohm and Haas Company (NYSE: ROH) to integrate its scheduling processes with the company's ERP data warehouse. The company, which last reported nearly $9 billion in annual sales, produces innovative products for nine industries worldwide through a network of more than 100 manufacturing, technical research and customer service sites. Optimizing and supporting the production and distribution scheduling across this network is a complex and ever-changing process.

"Rohm and Haas has a history of improving our operations to enhance customer service levels and reduce cost," said Dave Shaw, the company's Business Process Manager for MFG and Supply Chain. "Production scheduling, which entails constant change to meet demand, is one of the toughest challenges in the supply chain. In the past, the lack of a reliable data interface has limited our ability to react quickly and with a high degree of confidence in our results. Profit Point's Data Interface software has given us near real-time access to highly reliable data, so we can respond quickly and know that our plan is right."

Profit Data Interface is a robust application that helps decision makers boost the effectiveness of their ERP data by extending its usefulness with optimization applications. By leveraging existing ERP systems, the software provides a robust and proven method that supply chain managers can rely upon to optimize their critical business processes and improve profitability.

"Rohm and Haas is a recognized leader in the chemicals industry with a reputation for supply chain excellence," said Jim Piermarini, Profit Point's CEO. "We have supported their scheduling processes for years. So, it was clear that the next evolution was to directly connect their optimization software to the date store using our Data Interface product."

Profit Data Interface, which integrates with SAP® and Oracle® data stores, can be used to optimize the entire supply chain including network planning, production and inventory planning, distribution scheduling, sales planning and vehicle routing.

To learn more about Profit Point's supply chain software and services, visit www.profitpt.com.

About Profit Point:
Profit Point Inc. was founded in 1995 and is now a global leader in supply chain optimization. The company's team of supply chain consultants includes industry leaders in the fields infrastructure planning, green operations, supply chain planning, distribution, scheduling, transportation, warehouse improvement and business optimization. Profit Point's has combined software and service solutions that have been successfully applied across a breadth of industries and by a diverse set of companies, including General Electric, Dole Foods, Logitech and Toyota.

About Rohm and Haas Company:
Leading the way since 1909, Rohm and Haas is a global pioneer in the creation and development of innovative technologies and solutions for the specialty materials industry. The company’s technologies are found in a wide range of industries including: Building and Construction, Electronics and Electronic Devices, Household Goods and Personal Care, Packaging and Paper, Transportation, Pharmaceutical and Medical, Water, Food and Food Related, and Industrial Process. Innovative Rohm and Haas technologies and solutions help to improve life every day, around the world. Visit www.rohmhaas.com for more information.

Contact:
Richard Guy
Profit Point
(866) 347-1130
http://www.profitpt.com

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Monday, August 25, 2008

Profit Point Integrates SAP with Entire Line of Supply Chain Optimization Software

Leading supply chain consulting firm's entire line of optimization software is now capable of quickly and easily leveraging SAP's robust ERP data warehouse.

North Brookfield, MA (PRWEB) August 25, 2008 -- Profit Point, a leading supply chain optimization consulting firm, today announced the introductions of Profit Connect, an interface that bridges its line of optimization software applications with SAP's enterprise resource planning (ERP) applications. With more than 46,000 customers worldwide, SAP is the ERP software of choice for thousands of medium and large businesses. By combining SAP's central data store with Profit Point's supply chain optimization software, business managers are now able to gain increased visibility to improve the quality of their critical business decisions.

"Historically, data availability and integrity have been the biggest challenge facing business managers that seek to improve their business operations," stated Alan Kosansky, Profit Point's President. "Compatibility with the universe of SAP's real-time data enables our clients to use our industry-leading business optimization tools with easy access to the universe of SAP data."

Profit Point's entire line of supply chain optimization software, which includes tools to improve network design, production and distribution planning, scheduling and vehicle routing, is designed to help manufacturing and distribution managers improve the decisions they make using advanced optimization algorithms and proven supply chain methodologies. By leveraging existing ERP systems, Profit Point's software provides a robust and proven method that supply chain managers can rely upon to optimize their critical business processes and improve profitability.

"In recent years, we have seen our clients increase their use and reliance on SAP for data management," said Jim Piermarini, Profit Point's Chief Technology Officer. "We saw an opportunity to access this data store, so that our clients could easily and accurately aggregate data for their optimization projects and increase the frequency of these business improvement efforts."

Profit Connect solves the data integration challenges by providing an easy, direct bridge to SAP's data store. Using Profit Point's SAP-compatible software, business managers can now avoid data duplication and distortion, improve efficiencies and customer service, cut operational costs and improve decision making through accurate analysis and proven optimization techniques.

To learn more about how Profit Point's supply chain software can help improve your profitability, contact us here:

(866) 347-1130 or
(435) 487-9141

Send us an Email

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Saturday, October 18, 2003

Enterprise Resource Planning Blues

If your company is installing, has installed, or is considering installing ERP software, you are probably already aware of this: despite the expenditure of millions of dollars each and the dedication of dozens (sometimes hundreds) of staff people, 60% of ERP projects fail to deliver the results expected of them. This statistic, reported by The Conference Board means that 6 out of 10 ERP projects are not on time, and/or budget, and/or don't deliver the value expected from them a year or more after launch. Additionally, The Conference Board found that, in most cases, implementation costs are 25% over budget. If this seems like a high failure rate, this is the most favorable outcome across several studies we know of.

Read our complete Enterprise Resource Planning report on how to escape the ERP Blues.

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